Now that we are well past the mid-point of 2008, it's a good time to look at where we are with one of the most talked about online financial subjects of the decade: person-to-person or social lending.

Currently, there are two U.S. companies actively originating unsecured, multi-purpose P2P loans (note 1): 

• Prosper: Through July, the leader in the market is running 10% ahead of its 2007 loan-origination pace. The company has funded $55 million and is on pace to do just under $100 million for the year. Website traffic is up 15% compared to a year ago (see graph below) and through July there have been 13% more loan listings (see previous coverage here, Finovate 2007 Best of Show video here; monthly volume reports here).
• Zopa: The company, which isn't technically person-to-person (the loans are originated by six credit union partners), but definitely has a social aspect to its loan program, has not revealed any numbers, but they have 475 loans listed on its "browse all borrowers page." Assuming, average loan size of $8000 to $9000, they are doing less than $1 million per month. Zopa is using Google AdWords to pitch "instant approval" with a credit score of 640+ (see screenshot below), an aggressive marketing move, especially combined with the 8.49% APR touted on the landing page (see screenshot below; previous coverage here, FinovateStartup 2008 Best of Show video here).

In addition, there are three more P2P lenders that appear very close to launching or relaunching:

• Lending Club: The company, launched in May 2007, has been essentially closed to new business since March as they retooled its loans into securities for regulatory reasons. However, the company is scheduled to present at our Oct. 14 Finovate conference, implying that they will be out of their quiet period by then (previous coverage here, Finovate 2007 video here).
• Loanio: The startup appears to finally be very close to launching based on an a Sep. 3rd email sent to its house list announcing the launch "in just a few weeks" adding in parenthesis (yes, we mean it this time!). The company will likely be the first to offer a co-borrower loan application (previous coverage here; Finovate Startup video here).
• Pertuity Direct: The newest competitor in the space is Pertuity Direct which we wrote about last week. Its website claims a Sep. 15 launch and we look forward to seeing their first public demo at Finovate on Oct. 14.  

Finally, there are also several companies looking to launch P2P services in 2008 or 2009, including Globefunder, Community Lend (Canada) and one we just heard about today Swap-A-Debt.

Forecast revision
Last December we published our second detailed Online Banking Report on Person-to-Person Lending. In that report, we predicted just under $200 million in originations this year. However, due to the inactive period at  Lending Club, the delay in Loanio's launch, and the more conservative approach by Prosper lenders, we are lowering the 2008 forecast by 25%, with an expected total of $135 to $150 million for the year as follows:

• Prosper ($95 to $105 million)
• Lending Club ($25 to $30 million)
• Zopa ($5 to $10 million)
• Loanio ($1 to $5 million)
• Pertuity Direct ($1 to $5 million)

P2P lending traffic from Compete (July 2007 through July 2008)

Zopa AdWords ad on "loanio" search
(4 Sep 2008, 1 PM PDT from Seattle IP address)

Landing page (4 Sep 2008, link here)

Notes:
1. There are also specialists involved in the student loan piece (GreenNote and Fynanz) along with Virgin Money and Loanback which help with person-to-person loan documentation and servicing. 

2. Top-right graphic from April 2008 ABC News segment on Lending Club and person-to-person lending.

Since the July opening of Apple's App Store, we've been tracking the apps in the Finance category (see previous coverage here). But there are also several apps in the Productivity category of interest to financial institutions: the eWallets.

There are two wallets available in the U.S. iTunes store:

• eWallet from Ilium Software: #46 in popularity in the Productivity with a cost of $9.95 and rated 3.5 stars (out of 5) across 143 reviews (see inset)
• Memengo Wallet: #48 in Productivity with a $0.99 cost and rated 4 stars across 43 reviews (website)

Web-based eWallets never took off because of security concerns and because they provided only marginal improvements in desktop productivity. However, a mobile version has more utility owing to sticky notes with password reminders and credit card info, helpful to users away from their desks.

How it works
Storage of usernames and passwords for websites is the primary use of eWallet, but it also has a Finance category (see inset above) where users can store credit card numbers and contact info (see screenshots below).

That info is helpful when using a card to make a purchase online or through the mobile phone. It's also a great place to store the info in case the card itself is lost or stolen.

Financial institution opportunities
While these apps haven't gained an overwhelming following, a financial institution could offer a free version that highlights its own card offerings while providing storage space for other card numbers. That way, you get your logo on the iPhone instead of Mint, Wesabe, or some other financial institution. 

The bank-branded eWallet could also include a financial calculator and direct connection to online banking.

 Note:
1. For more info see our Online Banking Repot on Mobile Money & Payments.

Last September, we wrote about the launch of Washington D.C.-based Pertuity Direct. At the time, the startup was showing some interesting social-personal finance tools such as Dare to Compare, which allowed users to compare their financial situation to their peers and national norms (see "before" screenshot below). It looked like another online PFM play.

But, it turns out the company's true business model is person-to-person lending (aka social or P2P lending) where it will compete with Prosper, Lending Club, Loanio, and others (see note 1). Its URL redirects to a non-functional placeholder page (below) that includes only an email signup (note 2).

Here's the company description of its strategy:

Pertuity Direct is bringing the next generation of social lending to the Web - integrating simplicity, liquidity and automatic diversification into the social lending model.

The founder is Kim Muhota, an ex-banker out of PNC Bank. Pertuity Direct, which is currently closed to the general public, will demo its new product at our October Finovate conference.

Current: Pertuity Direct placeholder page with email signup
(26 Aug 2008)

Before: Pertuity Direct website before redirect put in place
(see note 1, 26 Aug 2008)

Notes:
1. For more on the P2P lending space, see our Online Banking Report on Person-to-Person Lending.

2. You can see the previous website content by following a deeper link available from Google.

Intuit joined the messaging race with the beta release of Quicken Beam. The free service sends users text-messaged balance-and-activity alerts from most U.S. bank, credit card, and credit union accounts. Users may also query the service for balance plus last five transactions by texting "Bal" to the short code 636363.

Currently, the service runs independently of Quicken and can be used by anyone free of charge. According to the official press release, the service was developed in Intuit Labs.

What's innovative
It's not a new feature. Quicken Online (see second screenshot below), along with most major banks and personal finance specialists (Mint, Rudder, Wesabe), already support text-message alerts (see note 1). But this is a relatively low-cost way to hook users early on with an extremely simple service, then migrate them to more robust Intuit services later on (Quicken, QuickBooks, TurboTax).

And the Quicken stamp of approval means a lot when turning over your log-in credentials to a third party. If you want to talk to the company about Quicken Beam, Intuit will be demo'ing the latest features of Quicken Online at our Finovate Conference in October. 

Financial institutions that lack text-message support might consider linking customers to Quicken Beam. Yes, you are turning customers over to another financial provider, and yes, your compliance folks will hate it. But customers are going to do it whether you want them to or not. You might as well get credit for making a solid recommendation. And realistically, using Quicken Beam is unlikely to hasten anyone's exit from your bank or credit union.

Qucken Beam homepage (25 Aug 2008) 

 Text messaging in Quicken Online (25 Aug 2008)

Notes:
1. Geezeo really differentiated itself with mobile capabilities in its May 2007 launch. 

2. For more information, see our Online Banking Report on Personal Finance Features.

There's a new challenger in the online PFM space, aptly named start-up Rudder which is headquartered in Houston, TX (see note 1). The company was founded in 2007 and launched last year under the name SpendView (note 2).   The company raised $2 million in January from Meakem Becker Venture Capital. The founder is Nikhil Roy. 

What's innovative
While it's a bit busy for my tastes, Rudder's homepage is aesthetically pleasing, and more importantly, lays out a number of remarkable benefits that every financial institution should be able to deliver on:

• Finances in your inbox: emphasizes that it's pushing info to you, not relying on your obsessive monitoring of a website
• Paying bills on time: They don't just help you pay the bills; Rudder makes sure you pay them ON TIME, a huge difference in terms of consumer benefits
• Think forward: Everyone has a sense of what they really have in the bank after upcoming expenses are met, but Rudder actually does the math for you and shows you what's truly "free cash" in your account after accounting for upcoming payments
• Every morning: Rudder provides a personal-finance heads-up each morning so you can go about your day without thinking about your finances
• Safe & secure: Self-explanatory, but cannot be overlooked

Clearly, Rudder has been studying how Mint grabbed an early following with great design, advanced functionality, and a brash point of view. However, it won't be able repeat Mint's PR coup last year of winning at TechCrunch40 and our Finovate 2007 (see note 4). Rudder has scheduled its public debut at competing techfest, Demo Fall, running Sept. 7-9 and unfortunately were not on our radar screen until after the Finovate 2008 lineup was set (note 5).

What it means
You gotta love Web-based startups. It took a decade for Wells Fargo to move from delivering plain old statement info on its website to offering rudimentary personal finance functionality in My Spending Report.

But less than two years after Wesabe (note 2) kicked off the Personal Finance 2.0 era, we have dozens of cool personal finance companies looking to make a name for themselves. Mint (note 2) is the most hyped (see coverage), but there are also great things going on at Geezeo, Jwaala (note 3), Buxfer, ClearCheckbook, Mvelopes, and, of course, Quicken Online, which has Coke-like brand awareness.

And don't rule out the incumbent financial institutions. PNC Bank (post here) and Frost Bank (post here) have both introduced novel accounts that incorporate advanced personal finance functions. And Bank of America has offered full-service PFM functions since late 2006 with Yodlee-powered MyPortfolio.   

Rudder homepage with five key benefits highlighted (21 Aug 2008)

Your "real" balance widget
I love the focus on what you really have in your account, after netting out all the known bills in the coming month. Here's the graphical feedback Rudder provides.

Notes:
1. Rudder seems like a good name for a financial management app. What do you think Jeffry?

2. The previous version, SpendView, is still live at <spendview.org>, but the original spendview.com now redirects to rudder.com.

3. See Wesabe and Mint demo their latest features at the upcoming Finovate 2008. Mint won Best of Show at Finovate 2007.

4. Jwaala was Best of Show winner at Finovate Startup, April 2008.

5. Attention startups: It's never too early to make an introduction and get on our Finovate watch list. We're already putting notes together for 2009. Contact Online Banking Report/Netbanker editor Jim Bruene. 

6. For more info on the space, see our Online Banking Report on Personal Finance

After looking at more than 100 companies, we've selected 24 finalists to present at our second annual Finovate Conference Oct. 14 in New York City (registration here). Three will emerge as Finovate Best of Show companies joining  last year's winners: Mint, Mortgage Marvel from Mortgagebot, and Prosper (note 1).  

In a single action-packed day, we'll see several financial startups launch, a few major product overhauls revealed, and a pile of new features shown to the public for the first time. It could be the single biggest "news day" in the history of online finance. Besides the amazing presenter lineup, the audience will contain many well-known industry analysts, press, banking and technology execs. Here are the subject that will be covered:

• Person-to-person lending
• Lead generation in financial services
• Personal financial management and online banking
• Mobile banking and payments
• Payments/billing
• Investing and retirement planning online
• Security technologies
• Social media and Web 2.0

Finovate 2008 Lineup (alphabetic order, note 2)
Below are the 21 companies we can name today, although two have not yet lifted the curtain on their product offering. The others, including two stealth startups, are keeping their identities hidden until closer to show time. 

In all, seven of the companies presented at our sold-out Finovate 2007, three are graduates from Finovate Startup last April, and 14 are new to Finovate. But all 24 will be demo'ing substantial new products and/or features. 

• BillShrink <billshrink.com>
• Boulevard R <boulevardR.com>
• CheckFree <checkfree.com>
• Check Point Software<checkpoint.com>
• Credit Karma <creditkarma.com>
• Digital Insight (Intuit) <digitalinsight.com>
• FiLife (Dow Jones/IAC) <filife.com>
• mFoundry <mfoundry.com>
• Mint <mint.com>
• MoneyAisle (NeoSaej) <moneyaisle.com>
• mShift <mshift.com>
• Inner8 <inner8.com>
• LendingClub <lendingclub.com>
• Pertuity Direct <pertuitydirect.com>
• Quicken Online (Intuit) <quicken.com>
• SmartHippo <smarthippo.com>
• Sybase 365 <sybase.com/365>
• Vidoop <vidoop.com>
• Wesabe <wesabe.com>
• WeSeed <weseed.com>
• Yodlee <yodlee.com>

About Finovate 2008

• Date: Oct. 14, 2008
• Place: New York, NY (Crowne Plaza Times Square)
• Cost: $995 through Sep. 30
• Agenda: 12 demos in the morning (7 minutes each, NO POWERPOINT),
  12 in the afternoon; each session followed by two hours of networking to meet with presenters for one-on-one discussions
• Producer: Online Financial Innovations, publisher of Online Banking Report and Netbanker
• Website: finovate.com
• For videos of the sold-out Finovate 2007, click here

Press: Members of the media should contact Jim Bruene, jim@netbanker.com to secure a press pass.

Note:
1. Winners are selected by audience vote.
2. The list does not include two stealth startups and one company that will be named later

Even though I have credit cards from Citibank, Wells Fargo, US Bank, American Express and Chase, I have never been offered the opportunity to add contactless payment capability to my card, so I still haven't experienced that particular wave of the future firsthand. 

But it hasn't been too high up on my list of things to try, since it still requires carrying a piece of plastic or an additional device such as key-chain fob (inset). I don't see much benefit to tapping a piece of plastic compared to swiping it.

However, I do look forward to NFC-enabled mobile phones. But given the hurdles for adoption among carriers, payment processors, and issuing banks, I wasn't expecting that much before the next summer Olympics.

But now an interim workaround is being tested around the world: the contactless payment sticker. It's a quarter-sized sticker you plop on the back of your mobile phone making it instantly payment-enabled.

That allows consumers to leave their wallets at home, a nice benefit for outdoor enthusiasts, club goers, or anyone who doesn't want to worry about losing their wallet while on the go. Of course, we'll need a few million more contactless-enabled merchants before the wallet-free world is realistic for most, but widespread use of stickers could move that along (see note 1).

Who has it?
There are several rollouts under way around the world. For example:

• Turkish banking giant GarantiBank recently won an industry-innovation award for its RFID sticker (press release). The sticker is produced by On Track Innovations. The bank began a pilot a year ago with several thousand Turkish customers.
• Silicon Valley-based Blaze Mobile says it will be delivering a Blaze Debit MasterCard with PayPass payment sticker to subscribers of its $4.99/mo Blaze Wallet this month.
• Though not yet connected to a major credit card, Malvern, PA-based USA Technologies launched its Pay Dot contactless sticker this spring (press release).

Note:
1. There are about 110,000 PayPass merchants worldwide, less than 1% of the 25 million locations that accept regular MasterCard cards.